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- Following the US attack on Iran, many expected dramatic consequences for global oil markets and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- After the US bombarded strategic Iranian installations on June 22, tensions in the Middle East reached levels unseen in recent years, making many fear a global conflict was imminent.
- Iran’s response came in the form of bombing a US base in Qatar.
Following the US attack on Iran, many expected dramatic consequences for global oil markets and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet a week after tensions reached their peak, the situation has largely stabilized. This reveals an often overlooked truth: no major power actually wants an escalation in this strategic region.
The theatrical 12-day war
What we’ve witnessed resembles more of a choreographed performance than actual warfare. After the US bombarded strategic Iranian installations on June 22, tensions in the Middle East reached levels unseen in recent years, making many fear a global conflict was imminent.
The details that emerged afterward paint a rather curious picture. Donald Trump quickly declared the operation a success, but reports soon revealed minimal damage. Iran’s response came in the form of bombing a US base in Qatar. Remarkably, both attacks were announced in advance to evacuate facilities and minimize casualties – there were zero fatalities on either side.
This strange dynamic (almost like something from a comedy sketch) suggests neither country truly wanted escalation. While Israel and certain American factions might have preferred overthrowing the Iranian government, Trump seemed unwilling to commit ground troops – a necessity if one truly wanted to destroy Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow.
Oil markets remain stable
The most telling sign that this was largely theatrical: financial markets barely flinched. While Brent crude (the European benchmark) initially jumped almost 6% to a five-month high above $78 per barrel, it quickly stabilized, dropping 7.18% shortly after. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark, fell 7.2% to $68.51.
Throughout the week, Brent crude hovered around $64-66 per barrel. At the time of writing, a barrel costs $66.62 – hardly the price shock many feared. This market stability confirms that major players never intended real escalation.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz – which was the primary concern for many countries. This narrow waterway is absolutely critical to global energy supplies, with 20-25% of the world’s oil and approximately 30% of global natural gas passing through it daily. We’re talking about an average of 13 tankers transporting over 15 million barrels of crude oil every day.
But the final decision rested with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which kept the strait open. Why? Because closing it would hurt Iran’s allies too.
A web of conflicting interests
Iran relies heavily on China as its main oil buyer. While Beijing purchases a significant portion of its oil from Iran, Tehran depends even more on this relationship, as China buys most of Iran’s crude exports. Blocking the strait would create serious complications for this vital partnership.
(Sure, Iran could theoretically allow only Chinese vessels to pass, but controlling the flow of ships isn’t straightforward – Western vessels flying false flags could slip through, forcing Iran to implement strict and costly controls.)
On the American side, Donald Trump has his own reasons for avoiding oil price spikes. Higher oil prices would increase inflation, making Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell even less likely to cut interest rates – something Trump has been pushing for to boost consumer spending and family investments.
Remember that Trump previously asked OPEC+ (led by Saudi Arabia plus Russia) to increase production to lower crude prices. Only oil companies would benefit from price hikes, including American fracking operations that become unprofitable when oil drops below $60 per barrel.
Europe’s energy vulnerability
For Europe, closing the Strait of Hormuz would be disastrous. The continent imports significant amounts of oil and liquefied natural gas from Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates), especially since reducing energy ties with Russia.
Interestingly, Europe has continued buying Russian crude through intermediaries – oil extracted in Russia, refined in countries like India, and shipped to the European Union via Turkey. Through this “magical” process, Russian oil is transformed into non-Russian oil.
This brief pause in Middle Eastern hostilities is likely temporary. Tensions in this region have flared repeatedly for nearly a century, and we should expect the cycle to continue. The world will need to stay alert to developments in this region that supplies so much of our planet’s energy resources.
